How This Unusual Campaign Shattered the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Formula.
Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.
Yet the latest race is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.
Below is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5
Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.
Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.
In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!
The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he falls short here.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.
What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.
Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.
Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.
The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.
3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record
Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.
Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.
Still
