🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."