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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.